Published November 3, 2026 in Market Update

Primary market sales rose even with inventory nearly flat

By Reza Lashkari

Real estate, Primary market

The one fact that changes what you should do right now: the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 650 homes sold across the Primary market in the three months ending August 31, 2026, up 4% from a year before. At the same time, inventory was only 553 homes, down 0.2%. More sales, nearly the same shelf of homes. That means pricing and timing are doing real work.

The National Association of Realtors reported U.S. inventory reached 1.60 million homes in September 2026. That sounds like a lot. But the Real Estate Data Aggregator shows this market had only 553 homes for sale in the same window. Local supply stayed tight while sales climbed. National headlines do not tell your street's story.

How each ZIP code looked

Not every area moved the same way. Here is what the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted for each ZIP in the three months ending August 31, 2026.

Lake Forest (92630) saw the strongest price gain. The Real Estate Data Aggregator put the median sale price there at $1,300,000, up 12.1% from a year before. Rancho Santa Margarita (92688) was the one ZIP where prices dipped, down 7.1% to $842,500. Sales there also fell 8.8%. That is a real difference, and it matters if you own in that area.

Speed: how fast homes are going under contract

Lincoln (02865) stood apart. The Real Estate Data Aggregator found that 55.4% of homes there went under contract within two weeks of listing. That is more than half. Oceanside (92057) and Mission Viejo (92691) both sat near 30% to 39%. Lake Forest (92630) was the slowest at 24.2%, though that is still nearly one in four homes moving fast.

Above-list sales: more homes are getting over asking

Rancho Santa Margarita (92688) saw the biggest jump in above-list sales. The Real Estate Data Aggregator showed that share rose 13.6 points from a year before, to 36.8%. Prices dipped there, but buyers competed hard on the homes that did sell. That is a nuance a broad headline will miss.

What the national picture adds

Freddie Mac put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.24% as of October 29, 2026. The 15-year averaged 6.60% the same week. Rates above 7% shape what buyers can afford. The National Association of Realtors said existing-home sales across the U.S. reached 3.99 million units in September 2026, with prices up 1.3% from a year before. Realtor.com reported U.S. active inventory was up 8.0% year over year. This market's inventory, by contrast, was nearly flat, down 0.2% per the Real Estate Data Aggregator.

Rates above 7% are real. They affect what buyers qualify for. But buyers in this market still closed 650 sales in the three months ending August 31, 2026. Demand did not vanish. It adjusted.

Supply by ZIP: where the balance sits

Oceanside (92057) had only 2 months of supply, the tightest of any ZIP. The Real Estate Data Aggregator showed that was down 0.6 months from a year before. Lake Forest (92630) had the most breathing room at 3.7 months, though that number also fell 0.2 months year over year. No ZIP in this market is sitting on a glut.

That last point matters most. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counts whole ZIP codes. Your block, your floor plan, your condition and your price point are a smaller story inside that number. One street can read very differently from the ZIP around it. If you want to know where your home sits inside these numbers, text me your address.